Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 040136 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
836 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NOT SEEING ANY REASON TO MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY?

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS BACK-DOORING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
CWA...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GO COMPLETELY CALM.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DIP GENERALLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
THE TYPICAL COOLER...LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO TOWARD
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THAT 32
TO 36 DEGREE RANGE. BUT...NOT SOMETHING WORTH A MENTION OF PATCHY
FROST.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WHILE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PROGS SUPPORT THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION /WESTERN CWA/
AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPS OUT ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS
/EASTERN CWA/ ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A REPEAT PERFORMANCE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHICH FEATURES TWIN CUT OFF LOWS...WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START. A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE WILL
SKIRT THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTER LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW 20S CELSIUS...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY WILL ALSO ENHANCE
MIXING SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH 700MB
ALSO QUITE WARM...AND MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/LOW
50S...PROFILES THUSLY SUPPORT DEEP MIXING WITH STABLE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. EXPECTING GUSTY WIND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...1/2KM
WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS WITH A PRESSURE BUBBLE OF 5 TO
9MB/6HRS...AND COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
GFS MIXED DOWN WINDS SUPPORT NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT THIS
FAR OUT WILL TEMPER EXPECTATIONS JUST YET. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL VERY SLOWLY. DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN GFS
PROFILES SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DRY LAYER EXTENDS BELOW 10-12KFT.

RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AND
STACK AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...SO MOISTURE AT THE TAIL END OF
THE EXTENDED MAY BE OVERDONE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...TDK


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