Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261800 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1259 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1144 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Fog/Stratus has been tough to erode this morning so have
increased cloud cover and tapered temperatures down to match.
Partial clearing may reach the James valley by the late
afternoon/evening but east of here will probably remain in cloud
cover through tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

An upper level shortwave and surface trough will push east of the
region this morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies for most of
the CWA. Patchy fog, along with drizzle has been observed this
morning. These conditions should continue through the morning
commute. Drier air will gradually push across the region from west
to east through the day. With locations along and east of the James
River valley likely seeing cloudy skies through this afternoon, have
lowered highs a few degrees.

Upper level ridging will build into the region later tonight through
Thursday. This ridge will bring dry conditions to the region. A
surface low pressure and upper level shortwave crossing southern
Canada will break down the ridge on Friday. Winds will shift to the
northwest and become gusty behind this system. While CAA will
develop Friday afternoon, temperatures should still reach the 60s
and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The mid level flow will be nearly zonal across the area when the
period begins. A weak shortwave will track across the Northern
Plains on Saturday, with a stronger wave moving through on Monday.

At the surface, low pressure will track across the Central Plains
early in the period, bringing a chance for precipitation to the CWA
late Friday night and Saturday. High pressure then swings through,
with dry conditions expected Saturday night through the day Sunday.
Another low pressure system then approaches the region early next
week. The GFS is weaker, but further south with the low, and
therefore brings a better chance for precipitation to the CWA than
the ECMWF. For now, will lean toward the wetter solution and keep
small pop in Sunday night through the day Monday. Dry conditions
return under high pressure on Tuesday.

Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. 50s to lower 60s will be common through the
rest of the period. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

LIFR/IFR ceilings are expected to dissipate/move out of PIR,
MBG, and ABR into the afternoon as surface heating and drier air
mixes in but remain in through the night at ATY. With the light low
level winds and high rh, expect fog to reform again at both ABR and
ATY tonight, dissipating Thursday morning. Visibilities could fall
to below a mile at times. Mid and high level clouds moving over may
hold the fog off at PIR and MBG.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.