Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300524 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 917 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

No changes planned at this time to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Weak high pressure will remain over the area for the next 24 hours,
keeping conditions dry across the region. Winds will generally be
out of a south to southeasterly direction in the 5 to 15 mph range.
Temperatures will be fairly mild, with lows tonight in the 30s and
highs on Thursday mainly in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Thursday night on will continue our trend of lows in the mid 30s to
low 40s, and highs in the 50s and 60s. Will start off Thursday night
with a 500mb ridge temporarily in place, squeezed between lows
across NV and MO. While showers and thunderstorms will be possible
closer to the 500mb over the southwestern states, mainly dry weather
will prevail across SD/west central MN. Steady dry east to northeast
winds will continue at the sfc through Saturday.

The best chance of precipitation through the period will be later
Monday into early Wednesday. The 500mb low that was over NV will
shift across KS-TX Monday morning (with precip getting as close as
southeastern SD), before exiting across the southeastern states. The
sfc low will remain well to our south. While there will be a sfc low
crossing south central Canada Sunday morning, it looks dry on the
southern end.

Will keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast for Monday
through Wednesday. Will continue to watch out for later Monday into
Tuesday as the next stacked sfc-500mb low shifts east of the
Rockies. Tuesday afternoon-evening have 60-80 percent pops going for
this system. As temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s Wednesday
morning, there could even be a mix of rain and snow over our
northwestern counties. With warm ground temperatures and only slight
chance pops, do not expect any accumulations at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the KMBG terminal
through Thursday evening. KATY is trending down through MVFR
conditions in lowering cigs, and will likely be down in IFR cigs
within the next couple of hours. KATY could perhaps be into some
sub vfr fog by morning, too. Low clouds will stick around at KATY
for much of the next 24 hours. Satellite imagery trends and
changes in the latest short-range model guidance now bring this
area of sub-vfr stratus into the KABR and KPIR terminals prior to
12Z and keep it around at these two terminals for several hours
into Thursday before conditions begin to improve back into VFR




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