Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The center of an Arctic high pressure over the western Dakotas is
producing bitter cold temperatures this morning with readings in
the teens below to 25 degrees below zero. Breezy northwesterly
winds along with low stratus is keeping temperatures from falling
in eastern SD and western Minnesota where temps remain steady.
With a few breaks in the clouds, temperatures in the eastern CWA
may still fall to the teens below zero.

The Arctic high pressure should push south of the CWA by this
afternoon with southerly winds developing. The southerly winds
should produce highs in the single digits above zero for most
locations. A few hi-res models even support highs reaching double
digits this afternoon. The southerly winds will continue ushering
in warmer temps tonight with lows only in the single digits on
either side of zero. With the south to southwesterly winds, hi-res
models are showing a weak, downslope wind event on the lee side
of the Sisseton Hills where patchy blowing snow is possible.

A vigorous shortwave will track north and east of the region
Wednesday and Thursday. This system will bring west to northwesterly
winds along with much above normal temperatures. Highs by Thursday
could reach the 30s and 40s across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main challenge in the long term will be pcpn chances come next
weekend/early next week. Mid level ridge early in the period will
provide for dry conditions and relatively mild temperatures across
the plains. However, energy is expected to dig toward the southwest
conus, and then eject across the plains late this weekend. All the
synoptic scale models are in agreement on this pattern evolution.
The main difference is in their track of mid and low level systems.
For now the ECMWF is the odd model out in plastering the forecast
area with pcpn. The GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/CFS all keep the vast majority of
pcpn south of the ABR CWA. GEFS plumes also suggest a further south
storm track. It will all depend upon how strong and progressive the
southeast conus ridge is. At this point any solution is a
possibility. Stay tuned!

The period should start off with above to well above normal
temperatures Friday and Saturday. However, by Sunday and early next
week, temperatures will again cool down as a storms crosses the
central conus.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Except for some MVFR ceilings at ATY overnight, VFR conditions are
expected through tonight and Tuesday.


SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.



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