Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR



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