Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010535 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Have had a couple reports of patchy zl- so have added that to the
forecast over the northeast portion of the cwa. Otherwise the
forecast is on track and no other major changes expected
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Massive upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the
Twin Cities region this afternoon, with areas of light snow wrapping
south across the CWA. Accums have been very minimal and this will be
the trend heading into the overnight hours as the low pressure
system only slowly moves eastward. Evening shift may need to prolong
higher POPs longer into the evening if upstream activity continues
rotating in. Otherwise, with winds continuing to slowly subside
tonight, do not anticipate blowing snow issues. The rest of the
short term in basically a dry one. Still watching potential for some
very light snow or flurries over central SD Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours as some very weak energy embedded aloft streaks
through the region.

In regards to temperatures, decided to increase lows tonight a
couple degrees away from the previous forecast, based on all the
cloud cover expected tonight and a continued light to moderate
breeze. Speaking of clouds, they will not be going anywhere in the
short term as models indicate moisture sticking around in the 925-
850 mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The long term does not look active across the region through
the weekend with near to slightly above normal temperatures from
Friday into Monday. With broad/weak surface high pressure building
slowly east into Saturday along with light low level winds and high
low level rh, the low stratus clouds will be persistent across the
region through Friday night. Thus, due to the cloud cover,
temperatures will not warm up much during the day or fall much at
night through Friday night. The models indicate a band of light
snow/flurries may develop Thursday evening and move east through the
night. Only have in small chances at this time. Otherwise, the low
clouds should break up/move east as low level winds turn south to
southwest into Saturday bringing in drier air. The snow cover out
west with little or no snow cover across the east will have an
effect on the temperatures as the clouds move out. With the low sun
angle this time of year, the eastern CWA may end up being a little
warmer on Saturday then the snow covered areas out west.

The models all show a surface low pressure area moving across to our
north on Saturday night with a Pacific front pushing through our
region with winds becoming west. The temperatures Saturday night may
fall off in the evening and then remain steady or increase as the
Pacific front pushes through the region. Sunday looks to be the
warmest day with the Pacific air with likely mostly sunny skies and
west winds along with less snow cover west. Expect we will have to
raise temperatures a little with some lower 40s possible.

The models all then show surface low pressure along with a strong
cold front moving into the region Monday into Monday night. This
will bring in chances of snow with it Monday and Monday night,
especially north and east in the CWA. Then the first Arctic air push
of the season will come in for Monday night and remain into
Wednesday. Highs are expected to be mainly in the teens and lower
20s for both days. If there is more snow cover, we may only have
single digits for high for some locations on Wednesday. Another low
pressure system will bring back chances of snow for Tuesday into
Wednesday with the track still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

MVFR cigs are expected through the night with occasional dips
into IFR. With the snow having pretty much ended across the
region, expect VFR vsbys through the night and on Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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