Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261720 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS STILL SUGGEST ISO/SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 20-21Z...OR WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND WHICH COULD CAUSE PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST MODELS...EVEN INCLUDING HI RES CAM SOLUTIONS ARE ACTUALLY
SHOWING ISO/WDLY SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS. DIGGING DEEPER INTO
THE DETAILS SHOWS THERE IS STILL RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MORE SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WEAK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT IS
MORE EVIDENT ACROSS ND TODAY AND NOT SO MUCH OVER SD. FEEL HI RES
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS A TAD...BUT FORECAST WORTHY OF AT
LEAST 20 POPS AT THIS POINT. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE RAPIDLY BY SUNSET.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO FIRE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD BY EVENING. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS OVERALL AIR MASS WARMS AT 925/850MB. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
ACTUALLY GETTING IN HERE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME MUGGINESS TO THE AIR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FROPA ONGOING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST ZONES. BEYOND THAT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS DRY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TAKING UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE CWA THANKS TO CANADIAN-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
850HPA/925HPA THERMAL PROGS DO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WHILE THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLAY. THEN...BY DAY 7...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
AND A RETURN FLOW PATTERN SETS UP INCLUDING THE RETURN TO SOME
PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON TYPE SHOWERS/THUNDER BETWEEN KMBG/KPIR TO KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY


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