000
FXUS63 KABR 150838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING E-NE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THE PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG THE 850 MB
MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH STRETCHES FROM SISSETON...SSW TO PIERRE.
THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE HI-RES MODELS OF THE
ARW/NMM SHOWED THIS BAND OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...THUS HAVE
ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL DRYING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS. THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SETTLE IN OVER THE
PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE THEN GETS DAMPENED AS AN UPPER
LOW TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND LOOKS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10KTS FOR ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR DECK OF CLOUDS
TO REVERT BACK TO SKC-SCT AFT 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN