Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280545 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DARKENING SPOTS IN THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING ...POSSIBLY FOG. THUS...ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG. STRATUS
DECK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA MAY ALSO BACK WESTWARD SOME
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THE EAST...EXPECT SOME IFR/MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AS THE LOW LEVEL RH
INCREASES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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