Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241801 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1201 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL BUMPING
UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF
18Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS KATY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCT. -SN WILL ALSO AFFECT KATY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND 3SM TO 4SM AT TIMES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BUT ITS A BIT UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT IF THEY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR OR ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO
MVFR. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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