324
FXUS63 KABR 292328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation gradually ending today as low clouds erode from west
  to east. Passing cold front on Tuesday brings another round of
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Additional systems for late Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday
  though overall less moisture is expected with these systems.

- Below to near normal temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The last band of wraparound showers continues to slowly trek
eastward this afternoon. Expect this to slowly exit west central MN
by mid evening as the associated low pressure system pushes
northeastward into the Great Lakes. The clouds have mostly cleared
out of central SD, and temperatures have risen into the 50s.
However, promised waa behind the upper low has been slow to move in
and may only jump after the peak of daytime heating.

Low clouds will clear by late evening from west to east allowing
lows to fall into the 30s...low 40s under waa in central SD. More
clouds move in by morning as a cold front approaches from the west.
The front will bring additional chances for rain...around a quarter
inch in the east with more possible in thunderstorms. SPC has kept
parts of Deuel and Hamlin counties in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk
for severe storms with the fropa Tuesday. There`s a corridor of
strong 45 to 50 kt shear that will set up and clip this forecast
area east of I-29. However, instability is lacking and CIN increases
through the afternoon as shear decreases. Best time to potentially
see some large hail (~1 inch) will be between 2 and 4 pm when CAPE
maxes out around 1000 to 1300 J/kg (provided low clouds/fog don`t
develop early and stick around) and the best shear is in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An upper level trough will be the dominant weather feature through
most of the long term portion of the forecast.

The period begins on Wednesday with an upper level trough over the
northern Rockies with southwesterly flow aloft over the northern
plains. One surface low pressure system crosses the central plains
Wednesday night through Thursday night, will bring 30 to 50 percent
chance of showers. The grand ensemble show a 20 to 35 percent chance
of seeing a quarter inch of QPF across the CWA, with a higher
potential southeast of the CWA. The upper level trough slowly
crosses the region Thursday night through Friday night, bringing a
low chance, under 30 percent, for additional showers.

Conditions trend drier for the weekend before another low pressure
system and upper level trough impacts the region early next week.
However, there are some disagreement among models with the strength
and timing of the storm system early next week, with the ECMWF
faster, while GEFS is slower and deeper. The differences causes a
low forecaster confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR/VFR cigs over the eastern part of the area will
exit to the east by late this evening or early in the overnight
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail tonight. An area of
rain will track from west to east across the area late tonight
through the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. Periods of
MVFR cigs and vsbys will accompany the rain. Once the rain exits,
VFR conditions will again prevail late in the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin