Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190511 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

No major changes planned for the evening forecast. A few
strong thunderstorms are moving into northeast SD. Storms are
expected to dissipate after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

More or less a carbon copy forecast from the last few days with
northwest flow aloft and cool mid level temperatures resulting in a
northwest breeze, and mainly diabatically driven shower activity.
MLCAPE values are only on the order of 200-500 j/kg - skinny
throughout the profile, so will continue to mention thunder but
severe weather is unlikely. CAM solutions show less coverage and a
concentration that is farther east as compared to yesterday
(Saturday). Otherwise not much of note in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The period starts off with a fairly meridional mid level flow across
the conus. However, the pattern starts to flatten out during the
period. Probably the main chance for pcpn will fall into the
Wednesday through Friday time frame.  But, that said, the models are
not particularly complimentary on the small scale details and thus
timing/positioning of ll fronts, etc, is of low confidence. Internal
model blend will suffice for now.

Temperatures will begin the period near to above normal, but then
will trend to below normal for the latter half of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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