Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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018
FXUS63 KABR 290540 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1240 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

Dry forecast for next few days with the slow moving upper pattern.
We will see winds shift to south/southeast as the high pressure axis
moves east. A gradual warming trend will be observed, along with a
pressure gradient increasing surface winds. With harvest on - the
main concern will be fire weather, with surface dewpoints unlikely
to increase much anytime soon.

The only other weather to note is a plume of moisture aloft coming
out ahead of the longwave trof with a tenuous connection to the
tropical pacific. Ceilings are above 10kft and with little lift
aloft anticipate only a layer of mid/high clouds and no
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

Conditions will be mostly dry and mild this weekend with highs in
the 70s. Breezy conditions will be felt across central SD as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten. Even warmer air aloft begins
streaming over the region on Monday with increasing southerly winds.
Superblend highs looked too cool on Monday given this scenario, so
increased highs more towards the raw ECE guidance numbers, which
pushes many areas into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Low
pressure then moves into the region Monday night through mid-week.
There are still differences amongst the models in regards to the
exact track of the low. Regardless of the finer details, all models
show low pressure moving through the area with fairly good chances
for rainfall. Would not be surprised if POPs need to be increased
over the next several forecast cycles, of course, given that the
models maintain their wet picture for early/mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Thursday. Southeasterly winds will increase into the 15 to
25 knot range across the western portion of the CWA by midday
Thursday, including at KPIR and KMBG.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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