Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191733 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 1037 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Made some changes to the forecast this morning. The biggest
change was to increase sky cover through the early afternoon hours
and decrease temperatures for most areas. The next wave of pcpn is
currently over SE Montana. Based on the time arrival tool, this
pcpn should reach the CWA around 22Z or after. Thus have delayed
pops in the western CWA a few hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

The sfc cold front continues to slide south with a few light
showers far west, and will be south of the forecast area by
daybreak. A sfc ridge will slowly sink overhead through Thursday
morning. The main result for today will be cooler air, with highs
8-12F below what we experienced Tuesday. Highs will be slightly
below normal, ranging from around 50 northeast to right around 60F
over central SD. Low clouds sliding in from the north could cause
temps to be even lower. Adjustments may be needed. The main fly in
the ointment will be the movement of the 500mb low across Ontario,
and the resultant trough across the Northern Plains shifting to
the and Great Lakes region by the end of the day Thursday. An
overall weak shortwave is expected to move across the region later
this afternoon into tonight, with much of the energy remaining to
our south. PW values jump up to 0.5 to 0.7inches over our western
and southern boarder. Expect showers to sink to our southern
counties 06-09Z Thursday. Otherwise, dry weather will be the rule
through the day Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Not much to talk about this morning in the long term. Decent long
wave ridge will be splayed out across the Northern Plains through
much of the period. This should keep most s/w energy shunted off to
the north of the ABR CWA, and therefore dry conditions should
prevail. However, toward the end of the period, the pattern breaks
down and southwest flow aloft returns to the Western High Plains.
Energy within this flow could bring some showers to the area by the
early to middle part of next week. Temperatures, overall, should
favor above normal during the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

MVFR cigs will improve to VFR this afternoon across the region.
However, MVFR/low VFR stratus will return by Thursday morning.




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