Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242033
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Shower activity rapidly diminishing. With high pressure overhead
once we clear out the high clouds with this low humidity
temperatures should be fairly comfortable. Return flow sets up for
Monday with a coridor of higher 850mb dewpoints coming up and around
from the west. We develop a 30-40kt low level jet overnight into
early Tuesday, with between 500 and 1500 j/kg MUCAPE. With mid level
warm advection anticipate elevated convection Tuesday AM. With weak
zonal flow overtop the persistent Southern Rockies ridge, expect the
forecast area will remain conditionally unstable Tuesday and
Wednesday with a pair of weak waves that travel overhead. 850mb
dewpoints increase upwards of +14C, so anticipate surface dewpoints
back into the 60s/low 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The models show an upper level high pressure area over the southwest
U.S. with a low pressure area over southeast Canada to the begin the
period. Ridging will extend north from the southwest high pressure
area into western Canada. Through the week and into the weekend, the
western ridge will push east and into the central U.S. while upper
level troughing drops into the Pacific Northwest. As a result of
this pattern, cooler than normal northeast surface flow will be
across our region until late in the period. Saturday and Sunday are
expected to warm up as south winds return with above normal
temperatures by Sunday. With this flow pattern, short waves will
traverse the region through most of the period bringing chances of
showers and storms to the entire cwa.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday morning.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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