000
FXUS63 KABR 250540 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL
POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LATER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A COMPLEX OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE FIGURING WHERE/WHEN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TNT WAVE/WAA
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...WITH PCPN
MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL IN COLD MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OUT WEST
WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS JUST TO THE EAST OF SFC TROF
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING
OVER THIS AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR SATURDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LLM NORTH INTO
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN FAIR AMOUNT OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE DURING MAX HEATING. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL WINDS AND
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT AN MCS CAPABLE OF REACHING THE
MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MO RIVER WHERE BEST SVR PARAMETERS
OVERLAP EACH OTHER. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE THREAT
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID EXACTLY WHERE THEY
WILL FORM AND TRACK IS SOMEWHAT UP FOR DISCUSSION. SATURDAY NIGHTS
ACTIVITY MAY WELL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY FOR THE SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ACTIVITY TO FORM ON. MEANWHILE LLJ IS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST OF THAT AREA. GEFS
ENSEMBLE PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN SUGGEST DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST...BUT SREF IS FAR LESS BULLISH. THEREFORE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THE DETAILS OF THE PCPN FORECAST. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW WILL BE AOA NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
TIME PERIOD OCCURRING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA
OF CIGS AROUND 5K FEET PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA /KATY
TERMINAL/...AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET STREAM UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AFTER A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. GOT THE BALL ROLLING WITH SOME
BROAD-BRUSHED VICINITY THUNDER MENTION AT THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. EXPECT START TIME AND DURATION TO CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCE`S ONCE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TS FORECAST CAN
BE IMPLEMENTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN/PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN