Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 290018 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SET UP FROM FREDERICK TO
FAULKTON TO MILLER...INCLUDING ABERDEEN. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP
ON THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE VERY WELL BUT ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND SFC
ANALYSIS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS EVENING.
ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EDMUNDS COUNTY AS
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD
FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FROM
THAT POINT ON.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES.
SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A DECENT LLJ AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPPING INTO THE LLJ/MOISTURE AND RIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN ITS
VICINITY. CAPE/SHEAR/MOISTURE ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOME DECENT ENERGY...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK ENERGY WILL STILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MINIMAL ENERGY WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THERE MAY NOT BE A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION THAT FAR OUT HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP OVER KABR CAUSING
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND RESULTING IN IFR VSBY. THIS WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE RAIN EXITS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
KABR/KATY. AS FOG DEVELOPS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT VFR VSBY TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT KMBG/KPIR UNTIL
EARLY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.