Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250545 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Just a few widely scattered light echoes still showing up on
radar this evening, so have decreased POPs considerably across the
area. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The overall weather situation will start to calm down quite a bit
over the next couple days. Sfc cold front currently along the SD/MN
border will continue to slowly move east tonight as the sfc low
tracks northeast into northern MN. Any decent thunderstorm
activity this aftn/evening should be near or ahead of that
feature. Behind the front, drier air will continue to filter
southeast over the region. The drier low level air is helping to
shred the leftover baroclinic north/south rain band across the
region. We should continue to see that band of rain shrink as it
moves east through the rest of the daylight hours.

Overnight, am not expecting too much in the way of pcpn, but another
batch of rain may clip mainly the southeast CWA. A better chance
of more light rain will enter the picture for late Monday and
Monday night as an upper low over Utah lifts northeast across the
far Northern Plains. Temperatures through Monday will remain
cooler than normal during the day given expansive cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The weak upper low parked over the southwest United States will
pull out across the northern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will bring a chance of showers to mostly the eastern areas
Tuesday night. After the upper low exits, NW flow aloft will
prevail with temps a bit below seasonal. Temps will moderate as we
get into next weekend. Models are showing the upper ridge over
the western CONUS to shift over the area on Friday and remain over
the weekend. Except for a weak frontal passage Thursday, most of
extended forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain in place across the area through the TAF
period. Scattered showers may affect the far eastern part of the
area during the overnight hours. Will see a break in the
precipitation during the day Monday before another chance for
showers returns Monday evening. Brief periods of MVFR vsbys are
possible with the precipitation.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Mohr


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