Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SO FAR TONIGHT...WITH THE AREA SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #469 EARLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...LIKELY AFFECTING KMBG AND EVENTUALLY
KABR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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