Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 271738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH THIS CWA BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 212 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CAMS SUGGEST MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SHIFT MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CWA. LACKING MUCH OF AN ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END
UP A TAD ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRIDAY...WITH MUCH HOTTER READINGS
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE EVOLUTION OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE/EXPAND TO THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WITH IT A RELATIVELY
WARM AIRMASS WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND OR GREATER THAN +10C THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THIS MAY WELL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD
DESPITE SOME LL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.  FOR NOW WILL PRETTY MUCH
LET MODEL BLEND RIDE.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR KPIR/KATY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR KATY SO ADDED IN SOME VCTS.
WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KPIR AND KATY
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.