078
FXUS63 KABR 072303
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
603 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low pressure continues to spin over the region tonight through
  Wednesday before finally departing Wednesday night. Additional
  shower/thunderstorm chances (20-40%) on Wednesday in associated
  with this low pressure.

- Below average temperatures can be expected through at least
  Thursday. Above average temperatures are looking likely over the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Precipitation coverage continues to diminish late this
afternoon/early this evening. Winds will slowly diminish this
evening as well, with little to no changes expected to the ongoing
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low pressure continues to spin across the region, now centered along
the ND/SD border north of KMBG. Obs still show strong westerly winds
gusting into advisory levels across much of central/south central
SD, so will continue with the Wind Advisory until 00Z this evening
before winds start to slowly diminish. Radar imagery continues to
show light showers across central/north central SD and trying to
stretch as far east as Brown county. Hi-res model trend is to bring
an end to these showers later this evening as the surface low starts
to shift northwestward further into ND.

On Wednesday, the upper low shifts to the south of the region, but
with daytime heating and the colder temps aloft associated with the
upper low, look for increasing clouds and scattered showers and
thunderstorms by afternoon. Minimal instability in place (<1000 J/KG
in HREF mean) , but enough to perhaps bring small hail with any
stronger cores that potentially develop. Although, the majority of
convective activity may be a bit further south of the CWA closer to
the upper low circulation. Current forecast features generally 20-
40% coverage of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The long term begins on Thursday with northerly flow aloft with
drier air moving into the region from the north. While Thursday
appears to be mostly dry, cannot rule out isolated, 20 pop, during
the afternoon hours over the higher terrain area in eastern SD, and
further west over western SD. After a period of dry conditions
Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave diving southeast across MN
will bring a 20 to 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon. Deterministic models have trended a bit further east,
perhaps keeping a good portion of the CWA dry. The NBM is trending
drier as well, with pops now capped at 25% or less across the far
northeast portion of the CWA. Northerly winds may be the main issue
on Friday as the NBM a greater than 30 percent chance wind gusts
over 45 mph. While half km winds off the GFS are rather
unimpressive, buffer soundings do indicate deep mixing on Friday,
with peak gusts around 35 knots.

The weekend will feature dry conditions with high temperatures
warming into the 70s. A potential trough and associated frontal
boundary may cross the region early next week, bringing the at least
a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing is the main issue
and causes more of a broad brush approach with pops early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue. Strong winds
currently gusting 30-40kts will diminish by about 10kts by 02Z
Wednesday, with winds at or below 20kts at all locations Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...KF