Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Surface high pressure will exit the region to the east
tonight...ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated
upper level shortwave. There may be a few showers or storms across
the western and southern CWA this evening ahead of the
system...though some of the models have backed off considerably on
this. Therefore...will keep pops fairly low. Attention then turns to
Monday when the system will begin to push across the state. The
front looks to be situated over the western CWA at 00Z
Tuesday...with most of the reflectivity models showing a line of
storms over the Missouri river. The atmosphere will become very
unstable quickly on Monday...with MUCAPE values in excess of 3000
J/KG by 18z. Lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km and the beginnings of a
25 to 35 knot low level jet will also begin by midday. Dewpoints of
55 to 60 degrees will be approaching from the south. One limiting
factor will be marginal deep layer shear values of only 25 to 35
knots...but low level shear around 15 knots may make up for that.
Slight risk has been issued by SPC...so will introduce low pops in
the morning...then increase them significantly during the afternoon
hours...especially across the west with large hail and gusty winds
likely being the main storm threats.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s...with
highs on Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Severe weather should be rolling across eastern SD Monday evening as
the front pushes east. Models are in good agreement of a linear
system moving across the east during during this time and as
expected SPC has the area in slight risk.

The main system will kick through by Tuesday morning with the dry
slot in place across the forecast area. northwest winds will
increase behind the front and conditions will be relatively dry.
However, as the low moves across North Dakota Tuesday night and
Wednesday area could see a few shower/thunderstorms in the wrap
around moisture. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week.

After the system ejects by Wednesday night, the mean ridge across
the west will rebound with rising heights across the forecast area.
There does appear to be any good forcing mechanism in place for
storms into next weekend. Expect warming temps and mostly dry
conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon and
tonight. A frontal boundary will approach the area from the west
late tonight into Monday morning...bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA late in the TAF period.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Parkin



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