Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...FOG SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FOG ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. ABR VSBY
DROPPED BELOW 1SM FOR A SHORT TIME IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. OAKES ND
DOWN TO 3/4SM AS WELL. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WITH A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY PUSH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...A
WEAKENING CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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