Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281152 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

DON`T EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE THIS LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD TODAY. PLENTY OF STRATUS...RAINS SHOWERS...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND...INFLUENCING ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF SUB-
VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY JUST END UP PROMOTING HALF-WAY DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG
CONDITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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