Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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173
FXUS63 KABR 291714
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

No major changes of note with the morning update today. See below
for 18Z Aviation discussion...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The next upper level disturbance rotating around the large upper low
over Ontario will move south across the region today. Cooler air and
clouds also spreading southward currently, and wonder if this may
limit instability a bit today. So, although we are expecting another
round of widely scattered showers and isolated storms, they likely
will not pack the punch as yesterday`s activity. Interesting to note
though that we do see inverted V soundings once again, but sub cloud
dry layer is shallower than yesterday. Breezy northwest winds will
be blowing once again, and these winds will continue right into
Tuesday.

Large, cool Canadian high pressure system settles in right on top of
the area by 12Z Wednesday morning. Soundings show rather dry air
throughout the column, so expecting clear skies and light winds. If
there is any cloud cover, it`s probably just thin cirrus. Kept the
trend of going colder than SuperBlend for Tuesday night lows. Stuck
close to the straight MET/MAV guidance which has lows in the upper
30s to around 40 degrees.

Surface high moves away on Wednesday, making way for southerly winds
and warming temperatures. This will start a trend of warming which
will last through the end of the week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

There are a couple of time periods in the out periods still showing
up with low end precipitation chances. Strangely enough, they hover
around a dirty ridge aloft (higher/warmer heights). Wednesday night,
when the upper level ridge slowly working east is still back over
the northern high plains/Rockies Front Range, lee-side troffing and
a low level jet are in play across western/central South Dakota. If
adequate low level moisture advection and forcing/lift can come
together Wednesday night into Thursday, there could be some
convective activity around. GFS/EC/Canadian models point to a
developing surface warm front somewhere in the region Friday into
Saturday when the upper level ridge and warmest low/mid level temps
will be around. Although models generate precipitation along the
warm front by Friday evening, most of the region will probably be
capped and precip-free. When upper level jet energy barrels into the
western side of the upper level ridge heading into Saturday/Saturday
night, heights are falling/temps are beginning to cool a bit, and
precipitation chances seem a bit more realize-able, especially along
the frontal boundary forecast to sweep through the Dakotas mid-
weekend. 00Z deterministic thermal progs and supporting low level
temperature ensemble output supports warmer than normal high
temperatures during the first half of the period, with readings
falling back down to closer to normal Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

CIGS will continue to occasionally dip into the MVFR range for
KATY initially before lifting to VFR. CIGS will dissipate with
loss of daytime heating for all but KATY, and winds will slacken
with VFR conditions overnight. KATY could see some lower CIGS
return again for early Tuesday however, with gusty northwest winds
continuing for KABR/KATY into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Connelly



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