Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 292021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST THE FAR EAST STILL SEEING A MORE SOLID DECK
OF CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO RISE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-50KT LLJ AND NORTH OF A +10 TO +12 DEGREE MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE CAP WEAKENS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AND 45 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
THE EAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME
TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH ON SATURDAY...AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...SO INHERITED ALLBLEND POP GRIDS
LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS. THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCLEAR BY THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS VARYING ON THIS THOUGH...WITH THE GFS
BEING RATHER QUICK TO BRING THE LOW OUT ONTO THE PLAINS VS THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR 850MB TEMPS...EXPECTING
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THIS PARTICULAR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING KABR AND
KATY. THIS CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR AND LOW END
VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE EVENTUALLY ERODING TO SOME EXTENT AS
WELL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. EXPECTING TO SEE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION
IN TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. OVERNIGHT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY OVER
KATY AND KABR...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW
RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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