Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160914
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
414 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER JONES COUNTY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE HAS LIMITED AVAILABLE LLM TO WORK WITH AS MOST
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF LLM...THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WITH A DEVELOPMENT
OF A MESOSCALE PCPN BAND TODAY...HAVE IGNORED THE POORER GRID
RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ALSO
IGNORED THE NAM WHICH HAS PCPN TOO FAR NORTH.

HAVE RELIED UPON THE GEM REGIONAL AND HI-RES ARW ENSEMBLE MODEL
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM
MILLER TO MILBANK TODAY. WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING 4+ INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS OKAY. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING
MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS AND FAULK...BUT WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY BEYOND TODAYS
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE MODELS ALL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND INSTABILITY...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL/FLAT
RIDGING OVER OUR REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN US. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST
MOVES EAST AFFECTING OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UNDER THIS PACIFIC FLOW...THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE VFR
FLIGHT CAT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

BASICALLY...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...PERHAPS
WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHEN P-TYPE SWITCHES FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BEFORE COMPLETELY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW.

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING SOMEWHERE
OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WHERE
EVER THIS OCCURS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VISBY REDUCTION FROM BOTH
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR.

BREEZY/WINDY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
TRANSITION AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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