Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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804
FXUS63 KABR 252042
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify just W of the CWA this
afternoon that has produced significant hail. Expect them to track E
around 20kts, and stay mainly as discrete cells through 00Z. At that
point they may diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Will
continue to closely monitor incoming and developing severe weather
potential in our high CAPE and marginal shear environment.

Current fcst would have precip exiting E shortly after 06Z, with dry
weather then being the rule through early afternoon Thursday. The
focus for showers and thunderstorms will be over the far W, and the
SE corners of the CWA. Just going with general thunderstorms for
Thursday. SPC has the Marginal and slight risk areas over the SE
corner of SD. Expect highs again tomorrow to top out in the 70s for
most areas, with low 80s possible over W Central MN.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Thursday night will probably be a dry forecast period, while upper
level confluent flow is over the region. However, when an upper low
currently over southern California lifts north-northeast across the
region Friday through Saturday, precipitation chances will abound.
Then, it appears some weak mid-level ridging/height rises develop
over the Northern Plains, shutting off the vast majority of
precipitation chances from Saturday night through Sunday night.
Beyond that, longer range model output continues to suggest more
precipitation chances setting up across the region Monday through
Tuesday as the next low pressure system deepens while moving east
over the Dakotas into Minnesota. This system is also expected to
bring breezy to windy conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs
through the period will be mainly in the 70s and 80s across the CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MVFR to VFR clouds remain across the area this afternoon, with
ournext round of showers and thunderstorms nearing MBG-PIR around
20-22Z, before slowly sliding E and weakening with the loss of
daytime heating, and ending all together near ATY by around 06Z
Thursday.The best chance of seeing any showers/thunderstorms will
be at MBG,with only VCSH mentioned so far at the rest of the TAF
sites.Otherwise, VFR ceilings and VIS are expected for the daytime
hours Thursday.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...KF



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