Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 021133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN
TEMPS AT 925/850 MB PEAK AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...TO
THE UPPER 90S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
COULD SEE 100 DEGREES. TEMPS COULD BE WARMER...HOWEVER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT THE GREATEST MIXING WINDS. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES OF
100 DEGREES OR HIGHER COULD BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...OR WHERE THE CAP IS
THE WEAKEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LOOKS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE MODELS ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS
KEEPS THE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS DRY. THE LATEST ECMWF
RUN IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN AND
BRINGING DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS SHOWN UP IN THE
MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS AND SUPERBLEND AND
KEEP TUESDAY DRY.

WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND MAINLY BETWEEN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD/LUECK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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