Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310551 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
STRATUS DECK THAT PLAGUED THE EASTERN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY IS
FINALLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A SCT/BKN STRATOCU FIELD...AND HAS
HELD TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SFC LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
WYOMING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
SD WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT
BACKED OFF MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN ND...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS SD. WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DEGREE
OF ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD.

WILL THEN LOOK TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST INSTABILITY STILL SETS UP EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY EAST OF I-29 DOES DEVELOP SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL DEFINITELY SET UP EAST OF HERE.

ASIDE FROM THESE TWO MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE POST FRONTAL
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP MONDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THIS PARTICULAR WAVE APPEARS A BIT WEAKER.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GENERALLY FLAT/FAST MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER SHOULD CROSS THE AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE FASTER THAN THE
GFS AND THUS DRIER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND GAVE
SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARD FASTER CONSENSUS THAT WAY WE CAN TAKE OUT POPS IF FASTER
TREND CONTINUES. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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