Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211759 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1259 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST OVERALL IS OKAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS
MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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