Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250213 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
913 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower snowfall forecast trends continue with the latest
  forecast. Highest amounts forecast for I29 corridor and Prairie
  Coteau. Much lower storm totals anticipated for James valley
  and west. Gusty winds still expected tonight and Monday (gusts
  40-50mph)

- Light snow tapers off Monday night into Tuesday across northeast
  South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Stronger winds also
  subside during this time.

- Cold temperatures persist through midweek before modifying
  toward the end of the week. A couple of weak disturbances may
  affect the region late in the week with the next opportunity for
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

No changes made to the current winter weather headlines. Some snow
still moving into central South Dakota this evening. Not much going
on across the east, but will see snow move back in to the area
mainly east of the James River Valley late tonight/early Monday
morning. Winds have gusted in excess of 30 mph at times already
this evening, and still expect to see increases in the wind speeds
overnight through the day Monday, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
expected. No changes to temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

This afternoon a band of WAA snow continues to move northeast with a
wave very evident on WV sat pics. This system will continue to
rotate northeast and away from the region. So, there will likely be
a lull in the pcpn into the evening hours. More snow will develop
across especially eastern SD and western MN as the system moving
northeast over the Southern Plains ejects northeast. As this system
spreads UVM across the region, a trowal like feature will develop
from southeast SD, northeast into central MN. That deformation zone
will persist from late tonight through Monday night before falling
apart. Heavy pcpn/snow amounts are anticipated with this feature.
Further west, the snow forecast has been reigned in considerably
through Monday over the James and Missouri valleys. However, will
keep headlines in place for the time being, owing to increasing
winds and some potential for blowing/drifting snow tonight. That
said, the snow character won`t be greatly conducive to easy
movement; and thus blowing snow may not be too widespread. The
strong winds will persist into Monday and then curtail Monday night.
Temperatures of course will remain below to well below normal
through Tuesday given the clouds and new snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Tuesday morning we will have an upper level low to our north in
southern Canada. This slowly moves east Wednesday and a ridge moves
in Thursday to take its place. This ridge starts to flatten out
Friday and we move into more of a westerly upper level flow pattern.
At the very end of the period, models are starting to show another
trough move into the region as a result of a low in Canada. Down at
700mb, there is a significant line of dry air to the west of this
weekend`s low that will keep us from getting much wrap around as the
low moves north and east into MN and WI. Relatively dry air remains
in place over the area at this level through Thursday night. A
shortwave moves through Friday to flatten out the ridge and bring
some moisture to the region. Some different moisture moves in
Saturday coming up from the southwest and spreading out across
northern SD. This stays in place through the end of the period.

Friday is our first chance for some precipitation. As that shortwave
moves through it could bring some light snow or rain/snow mix to our
area. Accumulations look to be very light at this time. Our second
chance for some precipitation will be Saturday/Sunday with the
approaching low from Canada. This round seems to be more rain or
rain/snow mix than just snow for most of the area. This is still 5/6
days out so details are limited.

Temperatures will be slowly increasing through the rest of the week
with temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s for the weekend.
This will depend on how much our snowpack melts. Cloud cover could
slow snow melt and therefore keep temperatures a little lower for
longer. Winds are expected to continue to gust up to at least 35 to
40 mph through the day Tuesday over eastern SD before diminishing
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of IFR/MVFR cigs will remain over the area through the TAF
period. Periods of snow will occur across parts of central South
Dakota tonight, while there will be a lull in the snow across the
east. However, snow will redevelop across eastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota Monday morning. Periods of IFR/MVFR vsbys
will occur with the snow. Northeast winds of 20 to 40 knots will
occur tonight, then the wind direction will become more northerly
on Monday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ048-051.

     Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ048-
     051.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin


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