Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 020555 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...BUT LEFT CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER 0Z. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE AND CONTINUE MENTIONING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS SHOW IN ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE OTHERS
HOLD CONVECTION OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN ACTIVE EARLY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER TROF
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  THE GREATEST MID LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  BY MONDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE
EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER...COOLER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MORE S/W ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MORE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL STICK WITH A
VCSH MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN



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