Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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430
FXUS63 KABR 302143
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
343 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Massive upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the
Twin Cities region this afternoon, with areas of light snow wrapping
south across the CWA. Accums have been very minimal and this will be
the trend heading into the overnight hours as the low pressure
system only slowly moves eastward. Evening shift may need to prolong
higher POPs longer into the evening if upstream activity continues
rotating in. Otherwise, with winds continuing to slowly subside
tonight, do not anticipate blowing snow issues. The rest of the
short term in basically a dry one. Still watching potential for some
very light snow or flurries over central SD Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours as some very weak energy embedded aloft streaks
through the region.

In regards to temperatures, decided to increase lows tonight a
couple degrees away from the previous forecast, based on all the
cloud cover expected tonight and a continued light to moderate
breeze. Speaking of clouds, they will not be going anywhere in the
short term as models indicate moisture sticking around in the 925-
850 mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The long term does not look active across the region through
the weekend with near to slightly above normal temperatures from
Friday into Monday. With broad/weak surface high pressure building
slowly east into Saturday along with light low level winds and high
low level rh, the low stratus clouds will be persistent across the
region through Friday night. Thus, due to the cloud cover,
temperatures will not warm up much during the day or fall much at
night through Friday night. The models indicate a band of light
snow/flurries may develop Thursday evening and move east through the
night. Only have in small chances at this time. Otherwise, the low
clouds should break up/move east as low level winds turn south to
southwest into Saturday bringing in drier air. The snow cover out
west with little or no snow cover across the east will have an
effect on the temperatures as the clouds move out. With the low sun
angle this time of year, the eastern CWA may end up being a little
warmer on Saturday then the snow covered areas out west.

The models all show a surface low pressure area moving across to our
north on Saturday night with a Pacific front pushing through our
region with winds becoming west. The temperatures Saturday night may
fall off in the evening and then remain steady or increase as the
Pacific front pushes through the region. Sunday looks to be the
warmest day with the Pacific air with likely mostly sunny skies and
west winds along with less snow cover west. Expect we will have to
raise temperatures a little with some lower 40s possible.

The models all then show surface low pressure along with a strong
cold front moving into the region Monday into Monday night. This
will bring in chances of snow with it Monday and Monday night,
especially north and east in the CWA. Then the first Arctic air push
of the season will come in for Monday night and remain into
Wednesday. Highs are expected to be mainly in the teens and lower
20s for both days. If there is more snow cover, we may only have
single digits for high for some locations on Wednesday. Another low
pressure system will bring back chances of snow for Tuesday into
Wednesday with the track still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Areas of -SN will continue over the region into the evening hours,
especially across KATY and KABR. VSBY may be reduced to as low as
1SM or 2SM at times within areas of heavier SN. Otherwise, expect
widespread MVFR CIGs to continue through the TAF forecast period,
with perhaps some IFR sneaking in over northeast SD late tonight
into Thursday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TMT



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