Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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873
FXUS63 KABR 190931
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
331 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Yesterday`s snow melt and moisture advection has produced areas of
dense fog over the eastern half of the CWA. A few obs are showing
visibility of a half mile or less at times. Several webcams are also
showing areas of dense fog. Thus a dense fog advisory has been
issued for the eastern half of the CWA.

An upper level low over the nation`s midsection will slowly lift
northeast and weaken over the 36 to 48 hours. This system will bring
moisture into the eastern half of the CWA later today through
Friday. Specific humidity at 850 mb will increase substantially by
18Z along and east of the James River Valley. The NAEFS return
interval suggests the moisture at 850 mb occurs once every two to
five years. This LLM, but lack of lift will likely result in low
stratus and fog over the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon
through Friday. With the clouds and abundance of LLM, have increases
lows tonight by a few degrees. While both NAM and GFS buffer
soundings indicate pcpn, mainly on Friday, preferred non-measurable
drizzle. Soundings moisten better Friday night into Saturday thanks
to a secondary upper level low pressure system. The drizzle should
transition over to rain/snow. With CAA pushing into the CWA from the
northwest, pcpn should become all snow by Saturday evening. Warm
surface temps and lack of good lift will limit snowfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Weak sfc low pressure with a remnant inverted sfc trough on Sunday
will keep some slight pops in the forecast across the north on
Saturday night and Sunday. There is a brief break in the action
Sunday night through Monday before the precip forecast becomes more
challenging. Models have lost their internal run-to-run consistency
on the system over the Plains on Tuesday. The ECMWF and GFS have
flipped their solutions with the EC now running dry across northeast
SD, though the Missouri River is still affected, and the GFS
plastering the entire forecast area with QPF as the stacked low
moves through southern NE and IA. Due to the extreme uncertainty,
stuck with consensus slight chance to chance pops Tuesday through
Wed night.

Temperatures will remain above normal in the extended but will see a
slow cooling trend through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Left KMBG in good VFR through most of the TAF valid period for
now. But, at KPIR/KABR/KATY staying with some IFR visby in fog for
the rest of the night. KABR and KATY are already in fog, but KPIR
is not yet. Still thinking there is the potential for a few hours
of IFR fog at KPIR before sunrise Thursday.

By the end of Thursday, will be starting to see a little bit more
of an advection component to low level moisture increases within
and beneath this pesky/strong low level thermal inversion. So,
guidance is considerably more aggressive bringing in low clouds
and/or fog redevelopment by late Thursday evening, in particular
at KPIR/KABR and KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ005>008-
     010-011-017>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn



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