Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 022016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT`S BEEN RAINING...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE NEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE OR MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAKING CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE TWO NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. AND...WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
NIGHT-TIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AND UN-MIXED...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY/AREAS COVERAGE OF FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FIGURING OUT WHERE THE COOL FRONT
BACK-DOORING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ENDS UP
STOPPING/STALLING OUT ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD FROPA TIMING WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM THE EASTERN CWA
CAN GET TUESDAY. AND AFTER SHOWERS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING...THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THE
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD


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