Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 082322 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
522 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The first 24 hours of the forecast period look to be fairly quiet,
as high pressure noses in behind a clipper system that tracked
southward over Minnesota today. The low cloud cover that was over
the eastern CWA has moved out, with just mid to high clouds still
lingering over the area. The weak surface high will begin to get
pushed east around midday Saturday ahead of low pressure dropping
out of central Canada.

Tonight`s low temperatures will be a bit cooler than last night as
the cloud cover will not be as widespread, with lows in the mid
teens east to lower 20s west. Highs on Saturday will be similar to
today, ranging from the upper 20s east to the lower 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The high amplitude meridional pattern will continue for another
week, at least, according to long range deterministic guidance,
though it may experience some minor de-amplification towards the
end of next week. The flow will support a series of weak clippers
across the northern plains/western lakes regions. The majority of
the precipitation with these features look to fall outside the
CWA, with the pattern favoring more of a scattered coverage of
shower activity in the cold advection regime for our area. Timing
out these systems, it appears the first moves through late Sunday,
with a second possibly late Monday, and finally one round mid
week next week. Confidence is low at this range for this upper
flow regime, though timing between the GFS/ECMWF is consistent.

As for temperatures, warm advection ahead of our first clipper will
result in mild temperatures Sunday thanks to favorable mixing and
925mb temperatures between 0 and +2C across the northeast CWA to
around +10 or 11C into our southwest, yielding mixed down
temperatures into the 40s and 50s. High clouds look to move in
during the afternoon, however. Will see northerly flow and cold
advection on Monday as arctic air plunges into the western lake
region. This will be a glancing blow for us, though mixed winds
are quite strong and BUFKIT suggests we will be close to advisory
criteria. We will see the arctic front shift back to the east into
Minnesota with a quick return to above average temperatures by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all sites except KATY where MVFR
stratus may move in again after midnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise


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