Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
846 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S BY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW SETTLES IN OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...JUST REACHING THE WESTERN CWA AT THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM. A 25-30 KNOT LLJ SETS UP SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALONG WITH 600-800 J/KG OF CAPE. HINDERING FACTORS WILL BE
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF
INTEREST...AND A +12 TO +14 DEGREE CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL JUST GO WITH SCHC POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MODELS MAY HAVE TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PICTURE WITH
A SURFACE LOW TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. THIS
PLACES OUR CWA IN THE MOIST INVERTED TROUGH REGIME. SEVERE
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME /BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS AND ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/. SO
OVERALL JUST LOOKING LIKE GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS AFTER THURSDAY...AND A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOLLOWS. SEASONAL WORKWEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR


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