Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 110038 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
738 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE MAIN WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY HAS EXITED THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
LINGERING ENERGY...ANY ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE LLJ INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.
THIS AREA REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. WILL
MONITOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE AREA THAT SAW THE MOST
SUN AND IS MOST UNSTABLE IS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. PLENTY OF SHEAR
IN THIS REGION AS WELL...SO IF A SEVERE STORM WAS TO GO IT
PROBABLY WOULD BE IN THIS REGION...HOWEVER BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND ADJUST POP GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
LESSENED THE BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWED ONLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE UP TO OVER 50
KNOTS. EXPECT SOME MORE BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE GFS AND
HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. CENTRAL SD ALSO SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN INCREASING
85H LLJ ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST THIS EVENING...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AFTER THE CONVECTION TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST
OF FRIDAY TO NOW BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DROPPING ACROSS THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD JET STREAK
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US IN THE
FAVORABLE RR QUADRANT. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF MAINLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH EVERYTHING
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S ON FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA MONDAY AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST. THIS SHOULD SPELL SOME MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
COLD AIR INSTABILITY CU/STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY ONLY ADD INSULT TO
INJURY ON MONDAY CLOUDING THINGS UP AND KEEPING JULY INSOLATION
FROM TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE COLDNESS OF THE AIR ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
BELOW IS A LIST OF LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE NEAR RECORD COLD
READINGS ON MONDAY:

...LOCATION......FORECAST....RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP...
WHEATON MN          64          72 IN 1949
SISSETON            65          70 IN 1993
WATERTOWN           65          61 IN 1962
ABERDEEN            67          65 IN 1962
MOBRIDGE            69          64 IN 1962
PIERRE              72          65 IN 1989


&&

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
LATER IN THE EVENING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAIN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL MONITOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. BEYOND
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS UNDER STRONG STORMS...MVFR/IRF CIGS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO SETTLE IN OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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