Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
631 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The area is currently seeing increasing south to southeast winds
along with temperatures in the lower 80s to the lower 90s. The
strongest winds and warmest temperatures are occurring along and
west of the Missouri River, or where very high fire danger is
expected. While winds are meeting red flag criteria, RH values are
falling short. With a few more hours of heating, along with some
mixing yet this afternoon, red flag conditions are still expected
in fire weather zone 268. Will continue monitoring conditions in
zone 267 for a possible expansion to the red flag.

An area of low pressure and associated front will cross the region
on Monday, mainly during the afternoon hours. With southwesterly
mixing winds, along with very warm temps at 925 mb, should see
hot temperatures in the upper 90s and the low 100s. Heat indices
will likely exceed the century mark. Will hold off on issuing a
heat advisory at this time.

The surface cold front will become the focus for thunderstorms,
mainly after 21Z thanks to an EML. While both MU-cape and 0-6 km
bulk shear values are moderate, high values of DCAPE should create
damaging wind gusts.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For much of the long term, a hot mid level ridge will remain in
place over the south central conus with fast flow aloft over the
forecast area. That mid level flow aloft will increase markedly by
mid week. With a sfc frontal boundary hanging around and
increasing deep layer shear over the region, will likely see
several rounds of convection this week. Unfortunately, there is
little agreement on placement and timing of MCSs, so broad brush
pops from in house model blend will have to suffice for now. That
said, mid level thermal ridge suggests most activity will occur
over the eastern and northern parts of the area. Temperatures
overall should favor near to slightly above normal through the
period.

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Monday. Low level wind shear is possible around the 2K
foot level across the northern CWA later tonight, likely affecting
KMBG and KABR. A few thunderstorms may develop late Monday
afternoon, but due to timing uncertainties, will not mention in
any of the TAFs at this time.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ268.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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