Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 022344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE



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