National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 141127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
BE A FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT CLEAR
CUT AS THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS AT PLAY. THE FIRST
ISSUE IS A VERY WARM EML OF +13C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS WARM LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB
WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THUNDERSTORM
FREE TODAY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN SD AND
FURTHER WEST IN MONTANA WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
REASONS STATED ABOVE.

A SECONDARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. IF THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY...THEN OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE LAST ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TODAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. BELIEVE EVEN WITH ALL THE LIMITING
FACTORS...SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND ALONG THE DRY LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVEL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG AN INSTABILITY
AXIS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK
WAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES AND LOOKS TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KABR AND KATY. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING...WITH SKIES THE
CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN