Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211134 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED MORNING.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC DURING
THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED
IN SOME WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY WITH WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KATY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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