Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 110007 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
707 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH RH
VALUES RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY STRONG OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WITH A DRY
AIRMASS...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. TEMPS AT 925MB WARM
TO THE LOWER TEENS...OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH SUFFICIENT
MIXING WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND MID 70S. WITH THESE WARM TEMPS...AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH.

VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP A 40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CWA. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MOST...IT ANY...PCPN SHOULD FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-29 CORRIDOR.

ALL MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. BASED ON
VERIFICATION...WILL IGNORE THE NAM/GFS AND USED THE SLOWER AND
WARMER MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GEM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AT 925 MB DROP A GOOD TEN
DEGREES FROM 0Z SUNDAY TO 6Z SUNDAY. DECENT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COLDER AIR WILL BE SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME A SYSTEM WILL BE
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. IT APPEARS THE PRECIP WILL BE
FIGHTING DRY AIR TO THE NORTH SO IMAGINE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN I-90/HWY 212 REGION. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO DEGREES
CELSIUS. BIG DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP AMONGST THE MODELS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THEY VARY IN TEMPS
ALOFT...WITH THE 12Z EC SHOWING WARMING TEMPS AGAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THINGS COOL. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
WITH VARYING STRENGTH AND SPEED NOTED. GENERALLY WENT WITH
ALLBLEND AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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