Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291744 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1054 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Low stratus along southward moving cold front should break up into
the early afternoon. Otherwise, all indications with the cam
models show shower/storm development along this cold front this
afternoon and evening. The risk of severe weather appears to be
minimal at this time. May have to adjust high temperatures
downward for this afternoon if caa becomes too strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Humid conditions set up across all but the far northwestern
counties early this morning. Steady southerly winds are common,
with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s.

The main concern this period will be afternoon convection and the
potential for a few stronger storms. This will stem from the sfc
low over northern Manitoba extending a trough along the Red River
Valley and through the northwest half of our forecast area at 12Z
this morning. This trough/cold front will sink and extend from our
MN counties through central SD, and become the focus for shower
and thunderstorm development coinciding with peak daytime heating.
Expect most showers/thunderstorms to stay southeast of a line from
ABR to PIR after 18Z, and really closer to 21Z, and be to our
southeast by 06Z Tuesday. One concern will be over central SD, and
the potential for the boundary to get held up across our region.

Behind the cold front, high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and
western ND at 00Z Tuesday will slowly sink a ridge across the
region. The high will be across central Canada Tuesday afternoon-
Wednesday morning, with the ridge extending down the Red River
Valley through the eastern half of our fcst area. This will mean a
contrast west to east, with the cooler northerly winds staying over
the east. Warm air advection returns Tuesday afternoon as winds over
the west strengthens out of the southwest on the backside of the sfc
ridge. Upper 80s will be more common over the west, with low 80s
east. It will be a similar story Wednesday. Dry weather should
prevail late tonight through the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

A pronounced ridge over the Plains will keep the region dry with
above average temperatures through Friday. On Friday night, the
ridge begins to collapse ahead of an approaching upper trough and
sfc low moving off the Rockies. The llj ahead of the low will help
to set off some showers. Then, the cold front marching across the
region on Saturday may bring some additional showers and
thunderstorms. As the upper flow transitions from ridge to trough,
the region will be under southwest flow aloft with increasing
shortwave activity. This will keep the showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast through the weekend and into Monday, even as temps cool
into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

MVFR CIGs are breaking up over KABR and now expect VFR conditions
to prevail. VFR will be the rule over the other terminals as well.
Will be watching potential for -TSRA/TSRA near/at the KATY
terminal this afternoon/early evening so have included VCTS
mention for the time being. If heavier TSRA or +TSRA manages to
move over KATY, then there could be some brief MVFR/IFR
conditions.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TMT



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