Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261749 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN AREA OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED
SMALL POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT
WEST OF THE RIVER. ALSO LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY HINDER WARMING ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT JET STREAK
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL
RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA
TODAY. IN FACT...VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP UN ON THE
KUNR/KBIS RADARS ALREADY THIS MORNING. PTYPE WILL LIKELY START AS
SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
LONG IF THEY DO OCCUR. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INDUCED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...THE 290K-300K
ISENTROPIC AND 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC PLOTS SUGGEST STRONG LIFT AT
THEIR RESPECTIVE LEVELS. NO LACK OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EITHER...SO THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
AND THEREFORE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
AGAIN...PTYPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START AS SNOW AND THEN TRANSITION
TO RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.

A MORE DEFINED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WIND...WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUN/MON BEFORE A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. WITH
FORCING WEAK TO NONE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT THESE
PERIODS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THEN
AFFECT THE REGION WED AND THU. NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME
RANGE SO SUPERBLEND HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVEN THOUGH
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING MOST ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BUT MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RATHER COMPLEX CIG/WX/VBSY FORECAST COMING UP IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF -SN/SN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR. -SN IS ABOUT READY TO EXIT
NORTH CENTRAL SD SO SHOULD LEAVE KMBG VICINITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO EXIT KPIR AND COULD
STILL SEE VSBY DOWN AROUND 1SM OR SO BEFORE IT DEPARTS. FURTHER
EAST...KABR AND KATY WILL NOT SEE -SN...BUT WILL SEE A MIX OF MVFR
AND LOW END VFR CIGS. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT KMBG AND
KPIR. A BIT MORE UNCLEAR OF THE CIG TREND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT INDICATIONS SUGGEST CIGS WILL GO BACK INTO VFR
TONIGHT BEFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. FRIDAYS SYSTEM WILL FIRST AFFECT KPIR AND KMBG
WITH LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH -RA AND -SN. EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO KABR AND PERHAPS KATY LATER
FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY AROUND 18Z OR AFTER. CONFIDENCE NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH IN THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT






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