Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301737
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHIELD
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NOW CROSSING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. A FEW HI-RES SOLUTIONS WOULD
EVEN SUGGEST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
PUSHING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY STILL MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR
NORTH. 925/850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND CLOUD
COVER TRENDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIKE YESTERDAY AS WELL...SO HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE BALLPARK OF FRIDAYS READINGS. THIS TRANSLATES TO 50S SOUTH
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THINNER/LESS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED.

SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z
EC BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS SOMETHING NEW THAT HAS POPPED UP
IN THE EC AND IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
THIS EC SOLUTION...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH DROPS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE
COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN AVIATION WISE WILL BE GUSTY E-NE WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN TO OUR S WILL MAINLY STAY
S OF A LINE FROM PIR TO ATY TODAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...KF


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