Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 240856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.