Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291904 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The models show excellent agreement in the short term with the
weather features affecting the CWA. For today, surface high pressure
ridging will build into the region giving us a brief break from the
wet weather. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs right around
80 degrees. For tonight and early Monday, a warm front returning out
west along with mid level instability will result in scattered
elevated thunderstorms developing in southern SD and lifting
northeast through the night into early Monday affecting our CWA. On
Monday and Tuesday, the models all show an upper level low pressure
trough dropping in from the northwest and intensifying over our
region. This will bring in increasing moisture and instability to
the region along with increasing wind shear. As deep layer lift
moves in with this trough along with a surface cold front pushing
east interacting with good shear and instability...numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening.
Some of these could be severe. These storms should line out as they
move east through Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the upper
low spinning over the region on Tuesday along with cooler west to
northwest winds, steep lapse rates, and weak cape, expect more
showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly in the afternoon.
Temperatures over the next few days across the CWA will be mostly in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s, cooling down on Tuesday into the
upper 60s to the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The 00z models continue to show a pattern evolution toward positive
PNA over the conus. At the beginning of the period a decent mid
level low/trof will be migrating east across the region as
moderately strong ridge builds over the western CONUS. Wrap around
showers may affect the north and eastern CWA on Wednesday, but
overall it should be dry for most of the remainder of the period as
a dry airmass flows into the region via cool sfc high dropping south
out of Canada. A weak system may bring some convection to the region
late in the week but confidence in timing of this is low at the
moment given model differences. Temperatures will start the period
off cooler than normal...but will trend toward normal or even above
by the end of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon and
tonight. A frontal boundary will approach the area from the west
late tonight into Monday morning...bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA late in the TAF period.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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