Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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