Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170226 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MIN T VALUES CWA-WIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND THEN
SHAVED A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OUT OF THE ALWAYS COLDER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED...SO SHOULDN`T HAVE A PROBLEM SEEING MUCH OF THE
REGION DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING
THROUGH PROVIDES MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...SO WIND SPEEDS MAY
DROP OFF TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE...BUT SHOULDN`T SEE ANY LONG TERM
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS SETTING UP. JUST A PERIOD OF
WINDS SWITCHING AROUND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDER...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THOUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND NOW
OVER SOUTHERN DEUEL COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR
THE COUNTIES INCLUDING HAMLIN...CODINGTON...ROBERTS AND AREAS
EASTWARD. WHILE DEUEL COUNTY MAY STILL PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO...GENERALLY THINKING AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES. MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES AROUND 5 MB WILL ENSURE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF.

RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING MOVES EAST. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR NOW.

BEGAN TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND MODELS SHOW THE 925
MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE MIXING WIND...BUT
STILL THINK THE SOUTHWEST CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
60S...IF NOT 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD OPENS
WITH ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING SOME CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE EAST FOR THE MORNING. THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM
OF CONCERN IN MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING BEGINS TO SET
UP ON TUESDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP
DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TOWARD
SIOUX FALLS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE SD IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH 25 TO 40 KT WINDS AT H85 AND
STRONG SHEAR THE REGION COULD SEE ITS FIRST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
WEATHER DAY OF THE SEASON.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT PUT A WRINKLE IN THIS FORECAST IS ONCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT UNDER A
CLEAR SKY...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT FROM THAT UP-SLOPE FLOW WIND DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS AREA OF CLEARING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT.

KABR AND KATY ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR STRATUS
CIGS...RANGING FROM 1000FT AGL AT KATY TO 2700FT AGL AT KABR. THE
CLEARING LINE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE JUST TENS OF MILES
NORTH AND WEST OF KABR...AND SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE TERMINAL.
SO THINKING SKIES WILL GO CLEAR AT KABR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY AT KATY. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD ON AT KATY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT
CAN BE HAD. AND SIMILAR TO KMBG/KPIR...CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING
WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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