Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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055
FXUS63 KABR 101136 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Broad lift is spreading across western and southern SD with moderate
warm air advection pattern having begun. Large area of light to
moderate snow has developed over the past several hours and
continues to move east, just having recently moved into the
southwest CWA. Have adjusted wx/POP grids a bit to account for this.
Models are showing minor changes with this weekend`s system, with
the 00Z EC interestingly showing an enhancement in forcing/snow
accums along the Hwy 12 corridor of northeast SD. Still expecting a
general 1 to 5 inches across the CWA, ranging from the low end
amounts near the Missouri River, to the high end totals across
northeast/east central SD into west central MN. It would still
appear that the bulk of today`s activity will be across the southern
half of SD into the southern fringes of the CWA. Will have to await
round two for tonight when upper level shortwave energy and upper
jet support move into the area. This is when additional development
of light to moderate snow will occur over a larger portion of the
region. Most of the activity looks to be out of here by Sunday
afternoon.

Will then be watching the frontal passage on Monday which will be
the next surge of arctic air moving in. Increased winds a bit on
Monday above that of SuperBlend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Arctic high pressure at the surface and an upper low nudging down
from Canada will combine to bring very cold temps to the region at
the start of the extended. Little relief is expected by the end of
the period as another, reinforcing shot of cold air plunges H85
temps into the -20s Celsius. At the surface, highs will be in the
single digits with lows of -5 to -15 through the week.

The first half of the extended will be dry. On Friday, energy will
be ejected out of an upper trough and may bring some snow to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Conditions will deteriorate today as an area of snow moves through
the region. Visibilities and cigs will fall to IFR/MVFR in snow
and blowing snow. A second wave of snow will move in tonight
across the north and east keeping conditions in the MVFR/IFR
range.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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