Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 080238
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
938 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

RADAR SHOWS THERE IS STILL ONE...POSSIBLY TWO...UPDRAFTS AND
ACCOMPANYING RAINSHIELD OUT THERE WORKING INTO CORSON/DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
FOR THE MOST PART APPEARS TO BE STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BORDER WITH MONTANA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS /PLUS
ADDITIONAL/ CONVECTION TO ATTACH ITSELF TO THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET AND CONTINUE RUMBLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL SODAK THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS STILL REMAINS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AND POPS/WX TIMING AND COVERAGE AS IS
FOR NOW. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH MT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING
EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GET
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. THEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES A 30 TO
35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
EAST BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EXPECTING SOME LOSS
OF AREAL COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST AND STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL SD UP TO JUST WEST OF ABR. MODELS ONLY GENERATING LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW ISO/WDLY SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN DRY AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO
RISE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN US. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILE WARMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THIS
PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME MID 90S OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND MID LEVEL CAPPING...HAVE
IN SEVERAL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AT THIS POINT...SEEMS THE TERMINAL THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS THE KMBG
TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OUT OVER NWRN SODAK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
INTRODUCE THUNDER AT KMBG IF NEED BE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN


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