Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 030547 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR





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