Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291808 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL TOO MUCH.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH THAT EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
UNFAVORABLE WARMING WINDS FROM THE EAST...925/850MB TEMPS STILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SO STILL SHOULD SEE A
BIT OF A TEMPERED RISE TODAY EVEN WITH CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WESTERN SD SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
TO BETTER MATCH THIS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AM THANKS TO
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEPART CWA BY MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE QPF ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEST RIVER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRATUS
EXTENDS WELL INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AT
ALL THANKS TO LACK OF HEATING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY.
ANY SUN WILL RESULT IN MIXING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...WITH THE NAM PEGGING MIXED DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 20-40KTS.
NAM ALSO SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...WHICH WILL END PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. WARMER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND MBG THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS MAY ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT AT THE SURFACE AND
ABOVE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
SD BY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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