Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041701
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1101 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

JUST ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES EAST OF THE JAMES FOR PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER
CHANGES OF NOTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS AFFECTING NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN FACT...THIS AREA OF SNOW
IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY SHOWING.
CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS HAND COUNTY. RADAR
HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER COTEAU
REGION...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS ENDED UP WITH AN INCH BY SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AND ISSUED A PRE-FIRST
PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER SNOW CHANCES PRIOR TO 12Z.
TIMING STILL HAS THIS WAVE EXITING THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FAIRLY NICE WRINKLE
SHOWING UP AT 500MB AS THIS MOVES THROUGH WITH A NICE SFC
REFLECTION. TRIED TO FOCUS POPS MORE SO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES FOR THE MODELS TO
IRON OUT IN REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING SATURDAY AND THE STORY THERE WILL BE JUST HOW
WARM WILL TEMPERATURES GET? VERY MILD 925MB TEMPS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND IN FACT...THE WARMER EC SOLUTION IS SHOWING
TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL REACHING +6C TO +10C ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. IF THESE WARMER NUMBERS VERIFY...TEMPS WILL GET VERY MILD ON
SATURDAY AND COULD LIKELY SURPASS WHATS CURRENTLY IN THERE FOR
HIGHS. WENT A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE TIME BEING
GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THE PRESENCE
OF GOOD MIXING WINDS AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE ARE A FEW MODELS
SHOWING ABERDEEN REACHING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...AND THAT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE TO
BE JUST RIGHT THOUGH SO WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAR WEST ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAYTIME SUNDAY. DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A FLURRY
OR TWO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLING TREND FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S FROM EAST TO WEST BY
TUESDAY BUT THEN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIT EASTERN SD
BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS AT KABR AND KATY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z LEAVING ALL TAFS VFR INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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