Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 141750 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AND PERHAPS A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH
A FRESH COAT OF SNOW...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST. WARMER AIR WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT
MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST...PLUS MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE JAMES
VALLEY LATER TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH NEARS. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DEVELOP. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/WDLY SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY AND SKIRTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF BROWN/SPINK COUNTY...ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL.
THUS...ANTICIPATE CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE
VERIFIED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERTOP
MILD AIR...AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE...WE MAY SEE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS...SO ADDED SOME LIGHT POPS/QPF FOR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON LOW LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN -2 AND +3C BY
THIS EVENING. FRESH SNOW AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SUNSHINE MAY INHIBIT
WARMING SOMEWHAT DESPITE FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS. READINGS WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SEE EVEN MILDER READINGS AT
925MB...BETWEEN 0 AND +5C. LATE MONDAY ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
WILL ASSIST IN MIXING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE ARE RIGHT ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE.
THE SREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURING IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES.  PERIODS STARTS
OFF WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND SHOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND FLATTENS IT.  SOME WEAK ENERGY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS MILD AIR MASS GETS
PULLED OFF THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES AT
THAT TIME WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON PROGGED H925 AND H85
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...WITH A SLOW EROSION OF LOW CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KPIR HAS FINALLY BROKEN OUT OF
THE LOWER CIGS WHILE KMBG WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MUCH LONGER FOR KABR AND KATY...LIKELY SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS
WILL HAPPEN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS KABR/KATY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE KMBG/KPIR WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT


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