000
FXUS63 KABR 161728 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NAM12 IS SUGGESTING MU-CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE EXCEEDS 600 J/KG WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE
OF AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL. THAT SAID...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM MAY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID...WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH NONE OF THEM LOOK
TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL JUST BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN THE
PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA...LOOKING TO JUST EXIT THE CWA AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL BE TYPICAL OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THE TWO DAYS WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP MAY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST STICK CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND WHICH KEEPS A SCHC/CHC POP IN MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COTEAU IN THE VICINTY OF KATY. HAVE NOT ADDED A VCTS MENTION
AS YET SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS. TIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN