Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190857
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
257 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

STRATUS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE EXTENDS WELL INTO
CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS THIS CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY...INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF
THIS...FIRST IS THAT WINDS HAVE PEAKED SINCE THERE WILL BE LESS
MIXING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS APPEAR FINE ON WEBCAMS...BUT WILL
KEEP MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SECOND...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...FORECAST LOWS ARE NOW SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH MOVING OF THE NEEDLE DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...SO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CIRRUS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY STALL TEMPERATURES BY MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH H925
TEMPERATURES FROM +4 TO -2C.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW LIKE PATTERN IS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ONE CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL BE HEADED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TWO PIECES
OF ENERGY APPEAR TO LINK UP INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF. THE TROF
APPEARS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE DESPITE THE PHASING OF
ENERGY. ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE POPS THE WETTEST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES WITH MORE DEFORMATION LIKE SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE MAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL TO
START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR/LOW VFR
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER ALL TERMINALS AND REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DOWN TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF AND THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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