Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231733 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Continue to backpedal on POPs/QPF/snow accums on this winter
storm that`s moving across the central Plains. Northern fringe
areas of the storm are where the biggest differences are noted as
the system continues to take a southern track. Headlines may soon
be affected as we continue to adjust things for a more southern
track. May have to downgrade/cancel advisories and warnings, but
will continue to monitor and see how things unfold over the next
few hours.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

We`re back to where we started from about 48 hours ago before the
anomalous jog northwards in some of the models yesterday. As such
have removed more of the counties from our headlines, with the main
areas impacted now along interstate 90, with less certainty between
interstate 90 and highway 14 prompting a downgrade of the watch to a
winter weather advisory. The southern Coteau will also see
accumulating snow, but with best forcing to the south of that area,
totals will be only a few inches. 1/2 km winds out of the northeast
overnight will top out around 30kts across southern counties.
Visibility in falling snow will be diminished even further by these
winds, however the recent melt means that snow will stick to the
ground and blowing/drifting will be non-existent once the snowfall
ends.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

An upper level trough over the region this weekend will keep
temperatures near average with highs in the upper 20s and 30s.
Shortwave activity moving through the trough coupled with some cold
air advection will squeeze out some isolated snow showers. Upper
troughing will dominate the region through mid week. The trough will
begin to exit on Thursday and temperatures will reflect that as they
pop back into the 40s.

While no significant precip is expected, there will be a couple of
sfc low pressure systems that move quickly through and may bring
some additional showers.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Cigs will vary between MVFR and VFR throughout the day today. A
winter storm will track south of the CWA for the most part, but
some light to occasionally moderate snow cannot be ruled will
occur across the far southern CWA at times. Increasing winds may
also aid in producing reduced visibilities at time where there is
falling snow. The system will push east tonight, with VFR
conditions expected across the entire CWA by sunrise Friday
morning.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for SDZ045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ033-035>037.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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