Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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