Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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235
FXUS63 KABR 172044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES OF
12MB/6 HOURS ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE RESULT IS
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MORE OR LESS THE WHOLE CWA. AS THE PRESSURE
BUBBLE MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL WEAKEN A TAD...BEFORE BETTER
MIXING DEVELOPS WITH SUNRISE MONDAY AM. FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...READINGS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GETTING BETTER
ALIGNED WITH 850MB READINGS FALLING INTO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE BY 06Z
TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MONDAY THANKS TO STRATO CU
DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALSO RESULTING IN SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE OF THE
RAIN/SNOW VARIETY.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY...A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH SO THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL DECOUPLE...LEADING TO
READINGS IN THE 20S. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET WITH WIND HEADLINES
OVERHEAD AND FREEZE HEADLINES TO THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THERE IS STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES /HIGHLIGHT THE I-90
CORRIDOR/ ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONE IMPULSE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED IS
DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ONE OR MORE SMALLER/TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK
TO THIS CWA. PER 925HPA AND 850HAP THERMAL PROGS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AT KABR AND KATY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS /PERHAPS EVEN A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO/ TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOME RATHER STRONG. PREVAILING FLIGHT CAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE MVFR...WITH BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS UP OR DOWN FROM THAT
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

AT KPIR AND KMBG...THE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AND STRONG AND WILL
REMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN...MODERATE AT TIMES...WILL
ALSO CONTINUE AT THESE TWO TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THESE
TWO TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR SDZ003>006-
     009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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