Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181755 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Continue to track the showers and thunderstorms exiting our
southeastern counties late this morning. Will then have to wait
until later tonight, mainly after 09Z for the next round of storms
to possibly move into central South Dakota. Have already chopped
temperatures a couple of degrees, and may need to do additional
trimming over the east if clouds persist.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Continue to watch eastward advancing MCS along the ND/SD border,
with wind gusts from 45 to 65 mph along it. Have been adjusting POPs
accordingly as the system continues to progress to the east.
Moderate instability, along with sufficient shear and DCAPE should
continue to pose a marginal threat for severe wind gusts through the
early morning hours, but expect threat to diminish as line
approaches the James River.

For later today, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region as energy ejects across the Dakotas. A look at
severe parameters would suggest strong to severe storm threat
further south in the region. With the frontal boundary remaining in
the region on Wednesday, look for additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms
as well. Thursday looks mostly dry with a more stable air mass
working into the region thanks to surface high pressure.

As for temperatures, today will be several degrees cooler than
Monday as we will be on the cool side of the boundary. Easterly
winds, along with areas of clouds and scattered showers will keep
temps down a bit as well. Hot air begins to move back into the area
on Wednesday, especially across the southwestern CWA where readings
are likely to top out around 100 degrees again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The long term begins with a broad upper level high pressure area
over the southern U.S. along with an upper level low pressure trough
in southwest Canada. This low pressure trough will move across
southern Canada and then southeast across the Great Lakes region
through the weekend. As this occurs, the high pressure area over the
southern U.S. will be suppressed with upper level heights rising
over the western U.S. This high pressure ridge out west will then
build east into to the central U.S. on Monday. The only chances of
showers/storms appear to be from Thursday night into Friday night
with dry conditions from Saturday into Monday. It looks like it will
cool down slightly from the mid 80s east to the lower 90s west on
Friday to the upper 70s and 80s for Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Mobridge is presently in MVFR due to diurnal cu fields forming
over the area. Nearby showers may maintain these conditions for
the early TAF period. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions
throughout the region, though diurnal cu may cause some short-term
drops to MVFR ceilings at KABR. Winds will remain light for the
most part, but Mobridge will become gusty late Wednesday morning.




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