Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 141612 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1012 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

No major changes planned to the current forecast. Temperatures and
winds are on track with an overall quiet weather pattern over the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An upper level trough currently over northern Manitoba will travel
across the Great Lakes Region later this afternoon. This system will
being cooler temperatures via gusty northerly winds into the area.
The strongest winds will occur in northeastern South Dakota and
western MN, or where the best CAA is located. A broad area of high
pressure will slide across the region later tonight with winds
becoming light and variable. With light winds and fairly high dew
points, patchy to areas of fog will be possible tonight. As the
surface highs slides south by Wednesday morning, 925 mb winds become
southwesterly with temperatures warming into the 40s and low 50s.
The warmest temperatures will be felt over western SD where 925 mb
temps climb into the mid to upper single digits above 0C.

An area of low pressure passing north of the region on Thursday will
bring much warmer temperatures in the area with highs likely
climbing into the 50s and 60s. Thursday could be warmer based on 850
mb temps. By 0Z Friday, the GFS, Canadian, and EC all suggest
record, 850 mb temps by as much as 3 degrees during that sounding
time period. The warmest model, the Canadian, shows 850 mb temps
reaching +13.2C. The 13.2C would rank in the top 10 warmest 850 mb
temperatures in February for KABR.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

No notable changes seen in model output compared to 24 hours ago.
The headlines continue to read "much above normal" temperatures
throughout the period, and "mostly rain chances by Monday".

Ensemble and deterministic model output for temperatures for
Thursday night through Monday continue to showcase unseasonably warm
air over the cwa. Collaboration tonight yielded extended forecast
max and min temps warmer than Superblend guidance (fourth
consecutive night). Thursday night marks the transition from
northwest flow to southwest flow (or some derivation thereof) aloft,
when the upper level ridge axis translates through the cwa and is
east of the cwa on Friday. The Canadian/ECMWF and GFS 00Z
deterministic solutions all still agree that the extended forecast
is a dry forecast until early next week when there are precipitation
chances developing across portions of the central and northern
plains. But, as mentioned by the Monday dayshift forecaster, there
is still plenty of model-disharmony regarding timing, strength and
placement of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Expect good VFR to prevail through, at least, this evening. There
is a chance some radiation fog could get going later tonight/early
Wednesday morning, per several guidance datasets. Over the next
12 to 18 hours, will want to continue to watch guidance trends
closely for appx 09Z to 15Z Wednesday timeframe.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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