Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH STRATUS TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS...MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THE STRATUS NORTHEAST. WITH POOR MIXING
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.

WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT THANKS TO THICK
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROF...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE IN FULL GEAR FOR FRIDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES OF +1 TO
+3C. A SECOND SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...WITH H925
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO +1 TO +5C.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM IN THE OFFING. DURING THE PERIOD ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTH AND FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...BUT FOR NOW THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE
AREAS GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN AND MAINLY SNOW AT THAT
TIME SINCE COLD AIR WILL BE DIVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...THE ADDITION OF
STRONG WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS
CLOUDS TO AFFECT PIR AND MBG TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ABR AND ATY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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