Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180914
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
414 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Convection now into the Sisseton hills region will continue to move
swiftly to the east/northeast, with some wrap around showers
lingering back in north central counties. NAM BUFKIT profiles dry
through the course of the morning, but also that daytime heating
will result in scattered/broken shallow capped cumulus.
Additionally, there is a weak/localized pressure bubble following
the system, which will result in a stiff northwest breeze this
morning across northeast counties, and mixed down winds are close to
30kts.

High pressure nosing down out of Canada will provide for weak cold
and dry air advection today, and generally temperatures will be
around climo.

The next system begins to move into the region tonight. There is
actually two distinct waves, embedded within zonal flow, and result
in two weak low pressure centers that eventually consolidate across
Nebraska. The initial wave will have to contend with dry northeast
flow and NAM BUFKIT profiles show a dry layer below 8kft. Lift is
initially weak, so much of this could be virga. Omega values are
quite high thereafter, and I suppose this is guidance trying to
phase a left exit and right entrance region between two jet maxes.
Profiles during that time are also just barely above melting, with
temperatures in the lowest 5kft ranging between +0 and +2C. Will
stick with all rain mention - but cant rule out a localized location
or two transitioning over to snow.

MUCAPE values are less than 100j/kg so will continue to omit any
mention of thunder.

High pressure will follow for Thursday with cooler mid level
temperatures and a dry low level airmass.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The majority of the extended period looks to be dry at this time
with high pressure in control Thursday night through Saturday night.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will approach
the area Sunday, then tracks through Sunday night and Monday,
possibly bringing precipitation with it. There does look to be some
weak shear around, but instability will be nearly non-existent.
Therefore, will keep the precipitation mention as rain showers.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the
period, with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period, except
for perhaps at KABR and KATY late tnt and early Tuesday when some
MVFR cigs may form. Showers and thunderstorms will march across
the region overnight, brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms. The wind will be gusty both ahead of and behind an
advancing cold front, as well as with any thunderstorms.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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