Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250942
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA DRY AT THIS TIME. MODELS SUGGEST
THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRED. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY WRING OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A DISTINCT WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL AID IN SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
IN...ALTHOUGH DID CUT BACK ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION BASED
OFF OF THE CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND UNOFFICIAL SNOW
MEASUREMENTS AT THE ABR WFO. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH...SO PERHAPS THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIFTING OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS....BUT NOT EXPECTING SNOW
TO BE LOFTED INTO THE AIR...SO NO MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW AT THIS
TIME. SOMETHING THAT CAN BE ADDED IF IT BECOMES AN ISSUES HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND
THEN NEXT CONCERN WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN RIGHT IN THE 10 MPH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF TWENTY
BELOW TO THIRTY BELOW ZERO. DID NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS HAVE OTHER
HEADLINES IN PLACE AND SO WANTED TO WAIT. PLENTY OF TIME TO
ISSUE...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HOIST THE HEADLINE. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...HOWEVER
WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WE LOOK TO TAKE A BREAK FROM THE ARCTIC AIR DURING THE LONG TERM
WITH MORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MILDER AIR. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING
IN FOR SUNDAY. THIS AIR MAY MAKE SUNDAY A LITTLE COOLER. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THEN PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY GET BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THIS FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW IS AFFECTING KABR/KMBG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY. SNOW WILL SPREAD
TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 10Z. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE VSBY COULD
FALL TO IFR IN BLOWING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE





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