Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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