Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171522 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1022 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Low clouds have moved into the region this morning and will move
across the cwa through the afternoon. There are some breaks
upstream in northern nd, so there may be sunshine late this
afternoon over our area as this drier air moves in. Otherwise,
breezy/windy northwest winds will continue through the day. High
temperatures have likely already been reached this morning for
some locations as caa has kicked in. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The surface map this morning features an area of low pressure
over southern Manitoba with a cold front crossing the CWA. Winds
will shift to the west, then northwest behind the passage of this
cold front. A secondary cold front in NW ND will slide across the
CWA by the mid morning hours with gusty winds and cloudy skies
expected. With this front coming in sooner than expected, high
temperatures have been lowered by a few degrees, mainly in the
northeast portion of the CWA. Buffer soundings and 1/2km winds
still suggests a possible wind advisory for the NE portion of the
CWA. Since winds are marginal, will forgo an adv. for now.

A surface high pressure building into the region tonight will bring
clearing skies with light and variable winds. The surface high will
push east of the region on Saturday with WAA developing over the
western Dakotas. The WAA, along with upper level ridging will spread
across the eastern Dakotas Saturday night with lows only falling
into the 30s. A surface low pressure system will cross the region on
Sunday. This system will shift the winds to the northwest which will
provide good mixing. With 925 mb temps between the 75th-99th
percentile and 850 mb temps near record territory, highs on Sunday
should warm into the low 60s for snow covered areas, to the 70s
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The period opens with semi-flat (zonal) flow aloft over the cwa as
Pac-NW energy comes barreling eastward across the Dakotas and MN.
Then, the upper level ridge looks to re-assert itself over the
region during the early part of next week before more (and stronger)
upper level energy moves inland off the pacific ocean and sweeps
across the rockies onto the northern/central plains states mid to
late next week.

Precipitation chances abound, although they are not very good
chances, associated with these smaller transient chunks of upper
level short-wave energy. Then better, longer-duration, chances for
widespread measurable precipitation start to show up heading into
Thursday of next week. Because it is expected to be so warm during
the out periods (NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Table), most
of the precipitation chances this go around are expected to be rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

One area of stratus and IFR fog has cleared off at KABR and KATY
just in time for more stratus approaching from the north this
morning. These cigs will likely be a mix of IFR/MVFR as well. The
wind will also turn gusty from the northwest once diabatic
heating steepens up low level lapse rates by mid to late morning
Friday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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