Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271739 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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