Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160533 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

An area of high pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will
track southeast across the region tonight through Sunday morning.
The high pressure will shift the winds from the northeast today, to
the southeast on Sunday. A low pressure system approaching the
region from the west will strengthen the pressure gradient Sunday
afternoon, mainly in north central where gusts could exceed 25 mph
at times. With hot conditions and dry air, RH values will likely
fall below 25 percent. Thus fire weather will be a concern Sunday
afternoon, mainly in north central SD.

A low pressure system will slowly cross North Dakota Sunday
night through Monday night. With this CWA squarely within the warm
sector, temperatures on Monday should be very hot with highs
exceeding 95 degrees for most locations. With 925 mb temps above 30C
and good southwesterly mixing winds, highs on Monday could be
warmer. A cold front should bisect the CWA Monday afternoon with
convection developing in North Dakota, or where 700 mb temps are
cooler. Still, with hot surface temps, moderate instability and
good 0-6km bulk shear, some thunderstorms could develop along the
front in this CWA. More widespread convection is possible Monday
night as the EML erodes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The long term may bring a bit more coverage of shower/thunderstorm
action as a "ring of fire" sets up around the northern periphery of
the mid conus mid level ridge. Mid level heights are expected to
gradually abate over the region, which means less capping aloft.
Meanwhile, a sfc frontal boundary will be meandering across the
region through most of the period. This portends better chances
for rain vs what we`ve seen recently. Temperatures overall should
remain near to maybe a bit above normal for the entire period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Sunday.


SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for SDZ268.



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