000
FXUS63 KABR 222011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEPART THE
AREA...EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO END LATER THIS EVENING. CLEARING
LINE HAS REMAINED ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TODAY BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 WILL START TO SEE
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT THE CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND MOIST GROUND...EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP SO HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. READINGS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. UPPER RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF ENERGY ALOFT
RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER WEAK THOUGH WITH MUCAPE
UNDER 1000 J/KG. HIGHEST VALUES REMAIN CONFINED TO WESTERN SD AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF S/W ENERGY TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE...WITH
RING OF FIRE SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY DURING THE
PERIOD. THUS...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS...A
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WAS UTILIZED FOR POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO START NEAR NORMAL BUT THEN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS/RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS LATER TONIGHT MAY WELL ALLOW
FOR FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN