Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 251602 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND
BY LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT
AND DISSIPATE. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGHS TODAY AND DROPPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN PLACES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL WARMING TO AROUND
+18 C TO +20 C SO STILL ANTICIPATING A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW LINGERING STORMS THIS AM. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND
SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. GUIDANCE PROFILES ARE A TAD MORE STABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. H85 DEWPOINTS FALL TO AROUND +/- 1C WEST
OF THE JAMES SO WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DRY OUT BY LATE MORNING AS
WELL.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY...MIXED DOWN ON THE ORDER OF 20G30S THANKS
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION TO ENHANCED MIXING. COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS ALL AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. AS A RESULT...WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH COOLER CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES EARLY ON WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATY AREA WILL END QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MBG
AND ABR AREAS WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ALSO...SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS THIS MORNING DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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