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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south through the area this evening with
showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This
front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday
night. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger
cold front then expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and dry through mid to late afternoon.

2. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon, spreading southeast into this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats.

3. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109 is in effect for all but our NC
counties until 10PM this evening.


Temps have risen into the 80s for most of the area under mostly
clear skies. Attention is on the severe wx threat this
afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary is dropping southward
allowing for the development of scattered thunderstorms to the N
and NW of our area so far this afternoon. Low level moisture is
slowly increasing across the region. Observed soundings from
this morning to our N and NW sampled the Elevated Mixed Layer
(EML) quite well with mid level lapse rates generally 7.5-8.5
C/km. These steep lapse rates, combined with sfc temps well into
the 80s and dew points in the 50s, will allow for 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Storm
organization will also be fostered by unidirectional WNW/NW flow
aloft which leads to around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear.
While the W-SW sfc flow will promote some mixing and drying
during peak heating (and thus introduces some questions
regarding storm coverage), still expecting at least scattered
tstm coverage given the favorable low-level environment for cold
pool propagation and upscale growth. Coverage will be limited
initially as there is also a small cap shown in soundings that
will need to be overcome.

The primary threats are large hail and especially damaging
winds. Hail is expected to favored initially as single cell or
transient supercell structures develop with the support of the
aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Hail in the 1-1.75" range
is most likely in any discrete severe storm. As additional
storms develop, upscale growth into clusters and/or a line is
expected as storms take advantage of the favorable inverted-V
low-level environment (DCAPE > 1000 J/kg seen in model
soundings). This will then favor the damaging wind threat
becoming dominant. Damaging wind gusts of 60-75 mph are possible
in any storm. The tornado threat remains very low. SPC has
introduced an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) this afternoon,
driven by the potential for damaging straight line winds. The
Enhanced Risk is centered over the north central portion of
area, generally over the Richmond Metro and extending west to
near Farmville, south to the 460 corridor, and eastward along
the western shore of the bay. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
covers the remainder of the area. Will continue to highlight
this threat in the HWO. The highest PoPs and storm coverage are
initially expected N and NE of metro Richmond, spreading S and
SE into the US-460 corridor, Middle Peninsula, and Hampton
Roads. As heating is lost after sunset, storm intensity and
coverage will tend to decrease, especially S of the NC/VA
border. Expect all storms to dissipate by 12-2 AM tonight with
just a lingering shower or two possible. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s N to around 60 S.
Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near
the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms,
especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and
NC. It`ll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will
be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W
Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of
showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side
(0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The front sags southward into central NC early Tuesday before
lifting back N and NE during the evening and overnight hours. Not
quite as warm behind the front with highs ranging from the 60s/low
70s on the Eastern Shore, low/mid 70s for areas along and NE of the
I-64 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s SW. The SW third of the CWA
will be closest to the front and associated low level moisture and
instability tomorrow afternoon/evening and a few showers or storms
are possible in these areas. Coverage is expected to be pretty
sparse with minimal QPF. Low-end chances for a shower or two
continue into Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near
the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms,
especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and
NC. It`ll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will
be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W
Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of
showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side
(0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.
Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the mid week
period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the
NE), despite the weak cold front moving through. Will keep
chance/slight chance PoPs over most of the area due to the cold
frontal passage occuring during the day. Will also have a low-end
thunder potential across the region during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Remaining on the mild side late week into the first half of the
weekend with on and off unsettled periods. Another cold front moves
toward the area later Friday into Saturday with additional chances
for showers and possibly thunderstorms. The 12z suite of
deterministic guidance is in somewhat better agreement with the
timing of the FROPA. The GFS and ECMWF both show a Saturday FROPA,
though the GFS is still several hrs faster. Whether this occurs in
the morning or aftn will dictate the extent of the tstm threat.
There still isn`t much of a high QPF signal as the front traverses E
of the Appalachians so will keep PoPs in the 30-40%/chance range.
Temps Friday will be seasonable with 70s for most of the area and
perhaps 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance continues to suggest
warmer temps on Saturday, though this is dependent on the frontal
passage and continue to see a large spread in the guidance and
ensembles. For now, expecting 70s and 80s (warmest S/SW). Sunday
will be much cooler behind the front with temps topping out in the
60s, though some guidance suggests 50s across the N. Lows Sunday
night range from the low 40s N to right around 50 degrees for areas
near the Albemarle Sound. Cool on Monday as well with highs in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front is dropping south through the area currently. A
line of thunderstorms continues to move south/southeastward from
RIC south. These storms are producing wind gusts upwards of
35-40kt and small hail. The threat is now moving towards PHF and
ORF between 00-02Z. Showers and storms will then move towards
ECG, though confidence is lower on wind impacts there as the
storms may try to dissipate slightly. Brief VIS reductions will
be likely in these storms. Storm/rain chances end from north to
south late this evening with skies trying to eventually break
by morning. Behind the front, expecting winds to become
northeasterly at 5-8kt into Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Most terminals will remain dry on Tuesday, however, there
is a slight chance of storms mainly from RIC west and south
late tomorrow. Rain chances may return Wednesday as well before
drier conditions move in for later Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast this afternoon.
Conditions are calm locally right now with west/southwest winds of 8-
12kt with waves of 1-2ft and 2-3ft seas. A weakening cold front is
slowly dropping south into the state. Storms are expected to develop
ahead of the front and move south/southeastward later this afternoon
and into the evening hours, generally between 5-10pm. At least a few
SMWs will likely be needed for 34+ kt wind gusts and potentially
isolated hail.

Storm chances will end from north to south later this evening. Winds
will become northeasterly behind the front during the early morning
hours, then turn more easterly during the day. Speeds will generally
remain below SCA thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period
where the Bay sees very low-end SCA winds roughly between 3-6am.
Opted not to issue a SCA now since it`s so brief and right on the
threshold line. Expecting sub-SCA conditions for most of the week
with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain
around 1-2ft with seas of 2-3ft. Seas will build to 4-5ft on Friday,
but should subside to start the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR/SW
LONG TERM...RHR/SW
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...JKP